Fuel Forecast Autumn – Winter 2015

Jet fuel in the Middle East remains ample, and the demand in the Arabian Gulf remains strong, even after supply to Northwestern Europe slowed because of the fuel glut. The last week of October saw increasing demand for jet fuel because of the winter season, opening up the possibility of greater flows towards Northwestern Europe.

On the other hand, some refineries in the Asia Pacific are running maintenance until the end of the year to meet the strong demand from the Asian Market. UAE refineries have also been supporting the Asian market, for example, ADNOC sold 60,000 mt of Jet A1 to cover the shortage until mid-October.  The demand for JET A1 in China rose 13.5 % due to the continuing and steady growth of overall aviation traffic.  

As of the beginning of November, we can see strong demand in the Asian Market, demand that is beyond the capacity of the refineries. For example, China Aviation Oil is seeking up to 1.3 million barrels of Jet A1 for the month of December, and also Pertamina in Indonesia is seeking 155,000 liters of aviation 100 LL. According to industry sources, the demand for jet fuel in Europe is being fed by the cargoes from the Arabian Gulf, thus tightening the supply to the Asian Market.